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Residential Renovation Project

Full renovation of a two-bedroom apartment: kitchen, bathroom and flooring, including electrical subcontracting. This is a full, live analysis produced by the QuoteCheck engine.

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Quote amount

€18,500

Expected cost

€15,993

Expected profit

€2,508

Expected margin

13.6%

Loss probability

0.0%

What this means

At €18,500, no simulated scenario lost money, so this quote carries no modeled risk of loss.

No risk

Model recommendation

Loss risk is low, but this price only reaches your 15% target margin in 26.7% of scenarios. If that margin matters, quote nearer €18,815; otherwise this price is safe to send.

Expected total cost is €15,993, leaving an expected profit of €2,508 at a 13.6% gross margin.
Across 10,000 simulations, 0.0% ended in a loss, with profit landing between €1,807 (P5) and €3,187 (P95).
The quote reaches your 15% target margin in 26.7% of scenarios.
Your current quote already keeps the modeled probability of loss below 5%; the risk floor is around €16,693.
Materials are the largest source of cost uncertainty, contributing about 78% of the variance in total cost.

AI Risk Review

A plain-English interpretation of this quote’s main risks and actions.

Overall assessment

Under the assumptions entered, this quote is modeled to be profitable in every simulated scenario, with an expected profit of about €2,508 (a 13.55% margin). The main limitation is margin rather than loss risk: the 15% target is reached in only roughly 27% of modeled scenarios.

Key risk drivers

Materials drive approximately 78% of the modeled cost uncertainty, so material price movements have the largest effect on the outcome.
The expected margin of about 13.55% sits below the 15% target, leaving limited headroom if costs run toward the high end.
In the modeled downside (P5) scenario, profit falls to approximately €1,807.

Recommended actions

To better protect the 15% target margin, consider quoting nearer €18,815.
Confirm material supplier pricing before committing, since materials are the largest source of modeled uncertainty.
If the quote cannot be raised, consider variation terms that pass material price increases through to the client.

Verify before sending

Verify the material quantities and unit prices used in the estimate.
Confirm the electrician subcontractor price is fixed for the project window.

Example AI interpretation based on the demo QuoteCheck analysis. The financial figures are calculated by QuoteCheck; the AI only interprets them and does not perform the calculations.

Cost breakdown

Expected (deterministic) cost by category.

Markup: 15.7%
Break-even quote: €15,993
Quote for 15% target margin: €18,815

Recommended pricing

Reference prices for this project.

Break-even (zero profit)€15,993

Target margin (15%)€18,815

Risk-adjusted (< 5% loss)€16,693

Target margin at 95% cost confidence€19,638

Profit distribution

10,000 simulated outcomes. Red bars are loss-making scenarios.

P5 (downside)

€1,807

P50 (median)

€2,514

P95 (upside)

€3,187

Total cost distribution

Simulated total project cost. The dashed line is your quote.

P5 (downside)

€15,313

P50 (median)

€15,986

P95 (upside)

€16,693

Cost uncertainty by category

Share of total cost variance driven by each category.

Results are estimates based on user-supplied assumptions and are not financial, accounting, or legal advice. The simulation samples uncertain costs from a symmetric triangular distribution around your estimates; actual outcomes will differ.