Know your risk before you send the quote.
Model your costs and their uncertainty. See the odds of losing money and the price that protects your margin.
- Built for contractorsManaging fixed-price projects
- Reduce margin surprisesSee the downside before you commit
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulationsPer analysis, by default
- Risk-adjusted pricingA price that caps modeled loss at 5%
A quote that looks fine on paper can still miss its margin.
Fixed-price projects lose money when uncertainty is ignored. A single estimate quietly assumes everything goes to plan:
- Labor takes exactly as long as planned
- Material prices stay fixed
- Subcontractor costs don't change
- No unexpected costs appear
- Quote
- €18,500
- Cost
- €15,993
- Margin
- 13.6%
One number. No idea how likely it is.
- Loss probability
- 0.0%
- Hits 15% margin
- 26.7%
From raw costs to a defensible price.
Three steps. The cost lines you already price, plus how much each one can move.
Build your estimate
Add materials, labor, subcontractors and overhead. The same lines you already price.
Add uncertainty
Say which costs are firm and which can move, with a simple ± range per line.
Price the risk
Thousands of simulated outcomes show your downside, your margin odds and a safer price.
Move the price. Watch the risk.
Drag the quote for our demo renovation project. Every bar is a simulated outcome. Lower the price and watch which scenarios start losing money.
Each bar groups the demo project's 10,000 Monte Carlo cost scenarios. The dashed line is the most the job can cost and still reach a 15% margin at this quote.
Everything you need to price a project properly
Built around one question: will this job make money, and what price protects my margin?
Monte Carlo risk simulation
Thousands of sampled scenarios turn a single-point guess into the full range of outcomes.
Loss probability
The share of scenarios where the job loses money, with P5 to P95 profit ranges.
Risk-adjusted pricing
The price that keeps modeled loss below 5%, and the one that hits your margin.
Sensitivity analysis
See which cost categories drive the most uncertainty in your profit.
Under the assumptions entered, this quote is modeled to be profitable in every simulated scenario, with an expected profit of about €2,508 (a 13.55% margin). The main limitation is margin rather than loss risk: the 15% target is reached in only roughly 27% of modeled scenarios.
AI Risk Review
A concise, plain-English read on your risks and what to do next.
Deterministic cost-plus
A full breakdown of direct costs, contingency, overhead, profit, margin and markup.
Client-ready reports
A clean, print-ready analysis you can save as a PDF and send to clients or partners.
Built for teams that quote fixed-price work
- Construction contractors
- Renovation companies
- Installers
- Engineering firms
- Project-based services
Simple, transparent plans
Start free. Upgrade when you're quoting every week.
Free
Price real jobs before you commit.
No credit card required
- 3 quote analyses per month
- Monte Carlo risk simulation (10,000 scenarios)
- Loss and target-margin probabilities
- Risk-adjusted recommended pricing
- Quote history
Pro
Most popularFor contractors quoting every week.
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- 30 quote analyses per month
- Everything in Free
- AI Risk Reviews in plain English
- Client-ready PDF reports
- Email support
Business
For estimating teams and high volume.
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- Unlimited quote analyses
- Everything in Pro
- Up to 100,000 simulations per analysis
- Priority support
- Early access to new features
Compare every detail on the pricing page.
Why modeling uncertainty matters
A single estimate hides the spread of outcomes. Sampling every uncertain cost from a triangular distribution around your estimate shows how often the job actually hits your numbers.
min = expected × (1 − uncertainty) mode = expected max = expected × (1 + uncertainty)
Results are estimates based on user-supplied assumptions and are not financial, accounting, or legal advice.
Deterministic cost analysis
Every line, contingency and overhead is summed into an exact expected cost, profit, margin and markup.
Uncertainty modeling
Each cost gets a ± range. Real projects move, and the model reflects which costs are firm and which aren't.
Monte Carlo simulation
Thousands of sampled scenarios produce a profit distribution, a loss probability and a risk-adjusted price.
Frequently asked questions
Stop underquoting risky projects.
Model your next quote in minutes and see exactly what price protects your margin.